Can the 5-1 train stay on the tracks?
Success makes Vikings fans nervous, for obvious historical reasons
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By Matthew Coller
Happy bye week, everyone! As you know, this train never stops so let’s get right into everyone’s questions…
@Mardelicious23 Ive been watching the Vikings since I was old enough to pay attention starting in 98, and can’t help but feel jaded about this year. Please “Talk Me Into” their current success despite obvious deficiencies, being sustainable for the rest of the season.
It would be hard to talk you into them winning five of every six games this season considering the schedule gets quite a bit more challenging after the next two games. However, with the Packers struggling, the Vikings could win the division by simply keeping the train on the tracks. It might only take 10 wins to get the NFC North and then you’re talking about a home playoff game. Win that and things get very, very interesting. In order to go any deeper than the first round they would probably have to be very healthy and get the right matchup — particularly a team that doesn’t have a top-notch QB or rush the passer on the interior effectively. Are those things possible if they are able to sprinkle in some offensive improvement over the year? Sure. Are there lots of potential potholes along the way? Absolutely. But starting 5-1 makes it entirely plausible to have things go right and make a deep playoff run, even without being as good as the 1998 Vikings.
@CurrentEventsR Can you talk about the 538 article about more 2 high looks on first and second down and how Cousins throwing short is part of that trend, if it is a trend? My take? 2 High on 1st down changes things and the KOC/McVay offense depends on exp. plays & early down passing...
What’s old is new in the NFL. When the Seahawks destroyed everyone with the cover-3 stuff, everyone wanted to do that. Then in response the Shanahan/McVay/Kubiak play-action offenses started crushing. Now 2-high is the response to that. Cool game, right?
I completely agree with your take that teams playing 2-high as much as they do now changes some of the formula for the Rams style offense. One thing is that the Vikings used to absolutely punish teams with the running game if they played two-high safeties. They are not doing that this year. I know the yards per carry for Cook is similar but there’s been more famine than feast on the ground. They haven’t forced teams to bring that extra man up, which means that the deep crossers off play-action are less effective. The other thing is that opponents have clearly figured out that sending their edge rushers up field on bootlegs is the answers to stopping the deep stuff and the best way to make them cut that out — you guessed it — is smashing them in the face with the running game.
But they can’t just run all the time. They need to find an answer for the number of plays where Justin Jefferson is running long-developing routes directly into a double team. O’Connell also can’t expect Cousins to make tight-window throws. He’s not going to do it and he might actually be right in avoiding trying to do any Matthew Stafford impressions. The answer is probably to lean hard into the quick game and work hard to get into favorable play-action situations.
@PhatStacks6077 Been a Vikings fan since mid-70's. I can't celebrate when they do well or score because I know they will find a way to lose somehow. This year the expectation they will lose these close games is causing me further stress because they are winning them. Should I drop my guard?
The best I can do here is just to say that you should allow yourself to enjoy football. I can’t tell you for sure that the 2022 Minnesota Vikings are going to make all of your wildest dreams come true but I’m sure it’s going to be some kinda ride the rest of the way. Maybe also keep in mind that whether you stress or not will have no bearing on the outcome of the game. So you could watch, eat some pizza and celebrate touchdowns or you could watch with clenched fists and a bottle of whisky and they’re still going to play the same either way. Maybe pick the former and we’ll see what happens.
@Aoki5Chuck Why do you think the end of half/game defensive struggles seem to be reversing this year? Surely some is just luck/regression, but is KOC/Donatell doing something to affect it?
Last year they botched end-of-half and late-game situations in ways I never thought possible. It couldn’t have possibly been worse than that unless they hired Joe Judge. A major part of that was game management from Zimmer. The clock, timeouts, when to be aggressive etc. was all a mess. There’s been improvement there.
I’m sure the players would tell you they are more confident because of their player-friendly coach but I’m not sure I completely buy that. Sometimes it’s just the tiniest things. Cam Dantzler got beat on two game winners last year and this year he’s made plays in big spots. Also some of the teams that beat the Vikings in the final moments were good at football. Cincinnati, Arizona, Dallas, Baltimore… all quality teams. That group is more impressive than Detroit, New Orleans, Chicago, Miami.
As Cousins says, “it’s a combination of things.” I don’t think there’s any good way to make a case that it will or won’t continue because everything in football is a small sample.
@CriminallyVu1ga Who is the first better than good player you distinctly remember both their drafting and their retirement?
Antoine Winfield Sr. I remember when he was picked out of Ohio State when I was about 12 years old and I being immediately blown away by the guy’s tackling ability. When the Buffalo Bills let him go in free agency to Minnesota, it was a massive gut punch for everyone in Buffalo because he was the real deal. And then he retired as the most underrated defensive player I can remember. Had PFF grades been around his whole career, we might be talking about a different legacy for him.
@KAAAAAHN_tk421 What's the origin of the term "bye" as relating to teams not having to play?
I have no idea when or why it first started being used but it drove my college journalism professor insane. He was an old school NFL writer and back in his day it was always written OPEN DATE on the schedule. A bye is only in the playoffs in every other sport. You earn a first-round bye but not in the NFL. It really should be called the open date but everyone just kept calling it the bye week and it stuck.
@BIG_dannn Is it finally time to see Reagor after the bye..idk if it’s scheme, separation or Kirk not seeing Irv, AT, and Osborn open. Regardless we don’t have money for moves & we traded for him..I feel 5 needs to get more looks with that Speed and shiftiness. What could it hurt
Maybe mixing him in with some quick stuff looking for yards after catch is justifiable. I’m not sure it’s possible to do much more with him than that. It’s a big challenge for O’Connell to decide how much he wants to change. We might attribute some of Thielen’s lack of big plays to age but Osborn and Smith Jr. have been much better in the past. I’d assume that KOC will try to investigate what is different this year with those two guys and make tweaks to get them going. If that doesn’t work, then he will need to push another button. I do agree with you that 5-7 plays per game where Reagor gets the ball on a reverse, pitch, screen etc. might be a plan to consider. I don’t think he’s a good enough all-around receiver to replace the other guys.
@jasnyder123 What does the interior of the OL need to do to clean up from the Dolphins game that looked like pass protection from last year? And how does Jefferson get in the end zone some more!?!? (asking for myself and fantasy team because he keeps getting tackled within the 10 it seems)
The answer is to replace Ingram with Chris Reed. I’m sure they want their second-rounder to get a chance to improve but he’s allowed the most pressures in the NFL among all guards (21), per PFF, and he’s graded 53rd out of 60. Reed has historically been a shade below average. The Dolphins were really smart in sending lots of five-man pressures, which isolated Bradbury and Ingram so they couldn’t work together on blocks and both got pushed back into Cousins. Other teams are going to do that after seeing it on tape.
Jefferson has been close a bunch of times, hasn’t he? When they scheme up things at the goal line they are almost always using Jefferson as a decoy because they know the other team is following him closely. That might continue to screw your fantasy team over. He’s Julio-esque in that way.
@tadfundermann Do you see the team making any moves before the trade deadline (Carolina players?) or a major FA (OBJ or Suh) in the coming weeks? It would go against the rebuild half and go full competitive.
Since there has been no actual evidence of the rebuild half, I’d say it’s possible. It really comes down to how much they want to further abuse the salary cap. After the offseason, the Vikings’ cap was begging for mercy. Ben Goessling wrote a good story about their options to make more space but all of them come with consequences. Personally, I say go for it. They are fooling themselves if they think there is anything rebuild-y about this team. You brought back Kirk, go for broke. That’s not exactly to say “F— them picks,” but why not push the chips to the middle of the table when the football gods gifted you a bad NFC and good health? Take a swing.
As far as whether they will do it, I have no idea. Particularly since Kwesi decided to “say less,” we really don’t know what they are thinking in the front office.
@bobh332 5-1 is wonderful but I am a Vikings fan. Is it really taking this long to “learn” the new system? Which means it’s just gonna keep getting better? Note: Thanks also scheduling committee for the start.
Yeah that excuse is off the table after the bye week. It’ll be time to start judging the offense and its adjustments harshly. Is it going to get better? I’d just say that it has to get better. You won’t win many games punting 10 times.
Caption: Vikings legend Linval Joseph sat with Dalvin Cook at the Wolves game.
By the way, remember how good Linval Joseph was?
@robbQthibault 1. I really dig D. Hunt. Will he earn the desired all world contract for next season?
I think so. The way he played against Miami looked much more like the old Danielle. I’m not convinced this system is a perfect fit but he’ll still probably end up with 10 sacks and a good overall share of pressures. It’s very possible he gets better as the year goes on as long as he stays healthy. I’d guess he’s a guy that they want to retire a Viking.
@J_B_ROSE With how stagnant the offense gets, I think they need to find more ways to utilize Reagor. With all of the attention 18 takes, there’s gotta be ways to get Reagor open down field. Less likely is Kene, but the offense just lacks explosion without 18. KJ too.
Well, Reagor was one of the worst downfield receivers in the league with Philly. How bad? On throws over 20 yards in the air, he caught four of 25 targets and made three of 11 contested catches (per PFF) in two years. That’s not saying he can’t get the ball in his hands but he isn’t the downfield answer. The question KOC has to answer is whether it’s Cousins’ comfort or his play calls/designs. I don’t think the lack of downfield stuff is because Osborn isn’t fast. KJ ran a 4.48 40-yard dash. Reagor: 4.47.
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