Friday Mailbag: Which way are the QB winds blowing?
Vikings fans have questions about recent developments impacting the Vikings QB situation
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By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday everybody! We have had some developments that could have trickle down effects on the Vikings annnnnd it’s championship weekend, so let’s get right into your questions…
Jonathan… What are your current “odds” for the following:
-Cousins re-signing with the Vikings
-Vikings drafting a QB at the 11th pick
-Vikings trading up and drafting a QB
I’ll go with 35% on Cousins re-signing. I know last week I was 50-50 but it feels like there is momentum gaining toward both parties deciding that going their separate ways is better. For Kirk, he has to be thinking about winning now because he can’t look more than one year down the road. For the Vikings, there’s no path in the NFC North to putting together a better roster than the Lions and Packers have next year so they have to look farther out.
Drafting a QB at 11 is entirely dependent on Cousins, of course, but if Cousins goes it’s 70% or higher because I have a tough time believing someone will trade them a top three QB. Trading up then would be 30%. Maybe the league isn’t as high on Daniels as us and he could get to the No. 4 or 5 overall pick but there has to be other teams with more draft capital who also want him. It’s like the rumor about the Vikings and Richardson. I’m sure they made calls and an offer but it was never happening because the teams at the top needed QBs too badly. I could see that happening again this year. But there’s a good argument for taking your guy at 11 anyway because it doesn’t sting as much if it doesn’t work out.
Marv… It’s very simple--the Vikes should have signed Harbaugh when they had the chance. He’s a proven winner. And all the talk about Zimmer was too tough and they needed someone warm and cuddly is baloney. KAM snd KOC have shown they are competent, but unable to take us to the next level on any consistent basis. Chargers will get there before the Vikes. It’s a damn shame.
Most of the criticisms that I see about KOC and Kwesi are basically ad hominem attacks with no actual critique. How does Harbaugh get credit for being a “winner” when Kevin O’Connell arrived here after winning the Super Bowl and won 13 games in his first season with a team that hadn’t cleared 10 with Kirk Cousins under the previous coach? How are we saying that the GM can’t take this team anywhere when he arrived and put a 13-win “win now” team on the field and then did all the right things to set them up for the future by not extending an older QB, moving on from a bunch of overpaid veterans and set them up to draft a QB and take advantage of the salary cap advantages in 2025? We are going to find out about KOC and KAM in the coming year or two but to act like they have failed is absolutely baffling.
And where I know you are really reaching is when you say “Zimmer was too tough.” That’s like saying the Titanic had a little trouble out at sea. The culture of the building was in flames. Zimmer completely lost control and wasn’t even speaking to the GM.
Harbaugh has won a lot of games in his career, in major part because he had amazing rosters in San Francisco 10 years ago. The minute those rosters slipped, so did the 49ers and he was out the door. He also would have been king of the franchise and brought his circus to town. I don’t believe that was right for the Vikings at the point they were making the hire. If you are telling me it was a mistake to hire a Super Bowl winning offensive coordinator who immediately got the most out of his veteran quarterback (they were 7th in scoring under KOC before Kirk got hurt) and turned the culture around to the point the players voted them the best team to play for in 2022, I’m sorry, I’m not convinced.
Harbaugh is savvy. He went to a team that’s down bad but has a franchise QB. Really good chance that he gets to play savior there by even making modest gains over his predecessor. If he’s successful there, good for him. But the track there was not the same as the track here. Of course, if he won 13 games in the first year and then got his QB hurt and lost, I’m sure the people who desperately wanted Harbaugh from the start would excuse that rather than saying the team made a mistake.
Wade… At this moment , is there any point to Vikings questions? I mean, we know exactly where we’re at on the time horizon... If the next quarterback is great, then Kwesi and Kevin are great. If not, we move on to the next administration. 2024 is the year we get the cap situation right and draft the QB of the future. And then, who knows? We’ll find out. (And if we run it back with Kirk? That’s just a complete surrender. Might as well fold up the tent.)
Oh, my friend, there is always a point to Vikings questions. You are 100% correct to say that Kwesi and KOC’s future rests on what happens at quarterback and I agree with you that bringing back Cousins seems to be sealing their fate as a team that won’t get over the hump but let me toss some angles to all of this out there that I’m interested in…
Which quarterback approach gives them the best odds to succeed? Trade up? Trade down? Is there a case for a bridge QB/development plan rather than throwing the rookie to the wolves? How can KOC shape the offense around his QB? Which guy would be the best fit for KOC’s offense? With little draft capital this year, how do they start building the other parts of the roster to make themselves a contender quickly? Will the owners allow for some patience if they draft a QB and go through a rocky 2024?
Lots to discuss. Purple Insider is on it!
Rob… Who wins this weekend? I think the Lions might shock the world and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. Baltimore was the best team in the league this year...I’m tired of seeing Mahomes on my TV every other commercial but the Taylor Swift coverage bothers some of my friends so I kinda want that to continue.
The reason I do not bet on games is because I would be horrendous at it. I think it’s going to be a Detroit-Baltimore Super Bowl. I’m concerned about Deebo Samuel’s effectiveness with his injury and San Fran can be very spotty with their coverage on defense. The Lions also quietly stop the run very well (2nd in run defense EPA this year). Baltimore has been the best team in the NFL all year. I’m not sure even Mahomes can overcome the gap in talent on the rosters, particularly when the other QB is also an MVP. Hey, how did these teams get MVP quarterbacks?! Oh yeah, they drafted them. What a good plan.
I appreciate that the football media hasn’t reacted to the fake outrage of people upset with Taylor Swift and the Chiefs. They show her on TV a few times a game, it doesn’t matter at all. If you’re mad about that, you’re just hunting for anything to bother you. Go yell at the kids playing on your lawn instead.
Ford42-P… There are so many holes on the roster esp. on the defensive side that there won't be a way to fill them all in this offseason. The question to me is how the Wilfs are going to react, when KAM and KOC tell them, they won't compete as much as they want and will build the team for 2025, what should be the goal. What is the chatter about extensions for both? How long are they under contract rn? Their contracts will set the course they will take, short cons would mean win now, right?
They reportedly got four year contracts in 2022 but in my experience NFL coaching and GM contracts mean absolutely nothing. Everyone is year to year. I don’t think their contracts should/will impact how they approach the offseason. The way I understand it is the brass is going to lay out the options and the Wilfs are going to decide which option is best. I’m sure there will be a “win now” and “take a step back” option. That doesn’t mean the GM/HC are off the hook if they try to run it back and it doesn’t work, rather that it’s on them to make the best pitch for how to win in the future. I’m sure O’Connell does not want to screw around with a rebuilding year because coaches are always terrified of getting fired but there’s plenty of examples of teams sticking with their coach through a transition and coming out on the other side looking better. The Wilfs need to look at this year like 2014. There is only a handful of pieces to work with a should be a rookie QB. It did not take forever after that before they were back at the top of the division.
Mark… If Cousins leaves and Vikings can’t trade up, would they then be better off trading JJ and go full rebuild?
I’m going to keep finding new ways to say “hell no” when it comes to trading Justin Jefferson. Here’s my latest: The following superstar players suffered through seasons with 6 wins or fewer en route to eventually being on teams that went to the Super Bowl:
Julio Jones, Aaron Donald, Javon Hargrave, Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa, George Kittle.
Giving away the No. 1 player at a position in his prime is a really bad idea. This team has enough talent on offense to quickly be back in the mix. Rebuilds are not seven-year projects.
Jim… Can you explain the reason why Vikings fans are so impatient with our GM/Coach? Spielman had quite a few down years before Zimmer and I don't remember such vitriol towards him, as there is towards Kwesi. He also had a terrible draft when he picked Treadwell, but people didn't want him fired till his last year or so. Zimmer missed the playoffs after the 2015 playoff loss, and after the championship game loss. I don't recall hearing people wanting Zimm fired like they do for Kevin O'Connell. Are fans so much quicker to want people gone or was I just not in the right places to hear that kind of talk?
If I had to pin it on one thing in particular it would be boredom and frustration. It feels a little like that Spongebob Squarepants meme where the squid guy is looking out the window at Sponge and Patrick Star having fun. The Vikings had another bleh year while the Lions are headed to the NFC Championship game, the Packers got their young QB to be excited about and the Bears’ tank came together beautifully. Even with the 13-win season, it still feels like it’s been a really, really long time since this team was relevant. You feel it at US Bank Stadium, you feel it with people on social media arguing with each other. These folks have tried to get excited for things so many times only to be let down that it has added up.
To your point, social media makes everything seem louder than it is. In reality, nobody is calling for KOC’s job. I’d even guess the Harbaugh Fan Club is a small group that really wanted him and has been very active in letting everyone know that. We have to keep that in mind when we try to judge the actual feelings. I think 90% of Vikings fans want to see where this is going before making up their minds.
Brett Johnson Why will nobody hire Belicheck? Are they all dumb?
I don’t think anyone wants to hand their entire franchise to Belichick after he just took New England’s roster down into the dumps. Everyone knows he’s still a brilliant defensive mind but do you want him completely in charge of everything now? If this was 2008, yes. Not now.
Ben… We haven’t heard anything credible on a Jefferson extension is that a good sign??
My understanding is that Jefferson has never wanted this thing to play out in the media, so you probably won’t hear much and whatever you do hear is speculation or reaching on sources. There should still be a lot of confidence that they get something done.
Tim… What is your speculation on where the Vikings will be in the next couple years? The division looks tuff.
It does. Teams are always rising and falling and sometimes good teams have random bad years but I think the Vikings can go from Point A to Point B with their competitive rebuild plan within the next two years and be right there in the mix. It’s so hard to say where they will be when the future at QB is up in the air. They can’t just be OK and expect to win like they did in 2022. They have to build a complete team.
Carter… Vikings lead NFL in delay-of-game in back-to-back seasons, averaging 11 vs. 3 from 2017-21. The penalties aren’t a huge deal, but feel like a sign that KOC’s offense is too complex, doesn’t provide enough easy reads/options to be consistent play-to-play and drive-to-drive. Always looking to force the explosives. Is that fair? Should we be worried about a rookie in that system? You think he can simplify?
Part of that may have just been backup QBs. Chemistry is such a big deal with an offense. Getting in and out of the huddle, the cadence and all that operated isn’t easy when you don’t take any first-team reps. I have wondered if KOC is a little slow getting the play calls into the headset because there have been times where it looked like Kirk was looking for the call but I can’t really be sure about that.
To your point, I do think it would be very challenging for a rookie but if you know ahead of time that a rookie is going to be playing then you should have an understanding of what that QB is going to be able to handle and then add things as you go along. However, it might speak to the need for a bridge QB here. I’ve become more and more sold on the idea of Baker Mayfield for that reason.
Bradley P… What can be learned from draft 1 to draft 2 for KAM? I’m hopeful that they have another draft like last years and can burn the plan from his first draft.
I say all this having been down on the draft when it happened… Probably not much aside from the fact that elite players are taken in the top 15 and I don’t think the draft charts truly represent how big that gap is from the hits within the top 15 versus trying to add up value between 2-3 players in the late first or second round. Maybe you could argue that positional value is important (Detroit’s 2023 draft would disagree!) or that safeties are a scheme fit position or that reaching versus the consensus board is always risky.
But just to show you that bad drafts happen to everyone, let’s take a look at our friends to the east who are currently being painted as draft geniuses for getting Jordan Love and a bunch of successful young players. Green Bay’s 2021 draft was every bit as awful as the Vikings 2022 but their 2022 is incredible with multiple good receivers and defensive players and a random high quality fourth-round linemen. Are they really smart or really dumb? Same front office with both drafts.
I read an article once from a person who got hit by a car and one of the things they said is that every time they were talking about the incident somebody would say, “why didn’t you move out of the way?” Because even in the most random event of getting hit by a car, people still thought there was blame to be handed out.
VicStorm… Ok.. so..recent podcasts and articles (and not so recent ones) have you espousing the need for drafting the next QB and moving on from Kirk. And I, and most Purple Insider followers, agree 100% that this course of action is well past due. Please explain then why in a recent pie chart answer you said it was a 50% chunk that management will stick with the Kirk plan. And explain (sell?) how a qualified GM and coach in this league (whose lives are devoted to creating and running a team in the best manner possible and who have the benefit of experience and staffs and advisors etc etc) could possibly see that running it back with expensive (and aging and injured) Kirk to the detriment of all else could possibly work now / get different results when it hasn’t worked in 6 years?
Well, I did lower that percentage earlier in the mailbag, so there’s that. The reason I’ve continued to believe it’s possible that Cousins returns is because I know that football is not a calculated, patient and rational business. It can be very reactionary and things are often done out of desperation and fear. If the coach is afraid of getting fired because they take a step back in 2024, that could push him to make a strong plea to ownership to give him back his QB, for example. Or if the Wilfs are as damaged by Christian Ponder as you guys are, they may be terrified of drafting a QB and prefer to go with a guy who they think can get them in the playoff mix rather than risking a terrible season.
General Managers all have the same title but they do not all have the same power. I’m not saying Kwesi has no power but when we talk about a “collaborative” approach, that means there are going to be more people than just him giving input into the decision. I’ve gathered enough comments from Kwesi to figure that he knows the odds of a 36-year-old QB performing at an elite level and he knows the challenge of playing the middle but it’s not a dictatorship.
That doesn’t mean I’ll defend it if they bring back Cousins and it fails, of course. There’s just way more politics involved in a GM job than it would appear.
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