By Matthew Coller
Welcome to the final edition of our Future of the Vikings series. This time we look at the timeline and the different ways the franchise could look at their current situation with an open quarterback position and a division on the rise. Let’s dive in…
“Competitive rebuild”
It isn’t often that a general manager lays out the team’s plans in such a clear way as the “competitive rebuild” description provided by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. When Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell took over in 2022, the ownership wanted to give the 2021 roster another chance because the general feeling inside the building was that they were sabotaged by drama and dysfunction.
So they extended Kirk Cousins, added veteran Za’Darius Smith, brought back Patrick Peterson and took another swing with most of the Zimmer/Spielman roster. It started out in magical fashion with the Vikings destroying Green Bay in Week 1 and rolling to an 8-1 start that included a signature comeback against the Buffalo Bills. Reality set in during the second half of the season and the Vikings went 5-3 the rest of the way and then they came up short against the New York Giants in the opening round of the playoffs.
The prevailing question of whether the last-dance approach to 2022 was worth it wasn’t easy to answer. There were plenty of memorable moments but the Vikings ultimately produced a negative point differential and failed to advance past Wild Card Weekend. The goal was to compete for the Super Bowl, not be happy with a fun regular season. It would have been better for the long run if they began a long-term plan from Day 1.
Waiting to tear down the old to make room for the new resulted in a rocky 2023 season. The “rebuild” part really hit hard when they parted ways with Peterson, Dalvin Tomlinson, Adam Thielen, Za’Darius Smith, Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks and Dalvin Cook. A 4-4 start to the season made it seem as if splitting the difference might allow them to reach the playoffs and watch a bunch of young players emerge as quality starters. But Cousins’ torn Achilles threw a wrench in those plans. The backup quarterback play wasn’t good enough and eventually the thin defense fell apart with injuries.
The last two years have led the Vikings to a crossroads. The “competitive rebuild” has not put them in position to be Super Bowl favorites heading into 2024 even if they extend Cousins and do everything possible in free agency. But they have too much talent to tank in 2024 and plan to pick their next quarterback.
Is the answer to bring back Cousins on a two-year deal and hope to return to the postseason in 2024 and truly compete around draft picks and signings in 2025? Is it to draft a quarterback and find a bridge QB who can keep them in the mix for 2024 and then spend like crazy in the offseason prior to 2025 with the cap space created by Cousins’ exit?
If they retain Cousins, how will they fill all the current needs? In order to even fill out a starting lineup they must add: Edge rusher (x2), defensive tackle, linebacker, cornerback, No. 3 wide receiver, left guard, running back.
If they draft a quarterback and sign a bridge QB, what are realistic expectations for 2024? Would ownership be patient through another 7-10 season if it meant progress in the long run? “Competitive rebuild” sounds great until you hit the “rebuild” part.
When the brass took over and gave Cousins the shortest extension possible and then did not extend him again last offseason, it seemed that all roads were leading to the 2024 draft class. It would be a thematic move to spend their highest draft pick since 2015 on a QB but it’s possible that everyone was spooked by the 7-10 season in 2023 and is afraid of the pressure that might come along with another non-competitive year.
How the Vikings interpret where they stand within the “competitive rebuild” plan that was hatched from Day 1 will determine the entire direction of the franchise going forward. And we will have an answer by mid-March when they make a decision on Cousins’ future in purple.
The division
Assuming the Vikings’ owners and decision makers were among the many millions who watched the NFC playoffs this year, it would have been impossible to miss the presence of the NFC North. Not only were the Detroit Lions up 14 points on the San Francisco 49ers in the second half with a team largely built on recent draft picks but the Green Bay Packers also nearly took down the 49ers behind their first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love, who looked nothing short of a star in the second half of the season and during the Packers’ playoff win in Dallas.
Combined with the Chicago Bears drafting No. 1 and No. 9 overall and having begun using their cap space to stock talent in the form of DJ Moore and Montez Sweat, the Vikings could be looking at playing in one of the NFL’s most difficult divisions for years to come. The Lions are retaining their top-notch offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the Packers were the youngest team in the NFL in 2023 and Chicago has an opportunity to flip its long-tortured QB history on its head with the top selection.
It would be madness for the Vikings not to consider the strength of their opposition when making decisions this offseason.
Weighing the timelines of division foes doesn’t have to point toward moving on from Cousins in favor of a longer-term approach but they would need a clear plan for the remainder of the roster. Through the years Cousins has repeatedly put up good numbers and high PFF scores but hasn’t taken them over the top in part because of weaknesses in other areas, whether it was the offensive line or defensive side, the depth chart has often resembled a game of whack-a-mole where one position gets fixed and another issue crops up.
Of course, the tough division could be problematic for a bridge QB or rookie starter too. It would take a lot of things going right in order to finish anywhere but last in the North in 2024 if they lean into a rebuild-y plan. In the subsequent years that may pay out big dividends and help them catch up in the North race but in the short term it would put a strain on the organization.
“Full Rams”
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