Amen. I think in LA Cousins it became clear that passes to Jefferson are completable even when a DB is stride for stride. JJ is looking back and can be first to a ball 9 feet off the ground. Cousins used to just see ‘stride for stride’ and check down. JJ is a gazelle, Cousins is accurate so this fits their personnel. I keep waiting for them to figure out back-shoulder throws.
I agree with the sentiment of this article strongly, but some of the specific numbers/assertions seem slightly off to me. I wonder if it is just you getting things from PFF, and they measure things differently?
For example, you said that the Vikings are "not capable of pressuring opposing quarterbacks," but the Vikings have the second highest hurry % in the league, and the 4th highest pressure % in the league, and those numbers as I recall have actually gone *up* since Hunter went out. Of course, we aren't getting home as often (as evidenced by the Vikings being an abysmal 28th in QB knockdown %), but that is different than getting a pressure.
Otherwise, while you are correct in that the Vikings are 24th in yards per play, 20th in defensive EPA, and 20th in % of scoring drives allowed, I wouldn't say that the defense is a bottom 10 defense as is suggested by those stats. Rather, by DVOA the defense is currently 8th. More importantly, it is 6th in passing defense DVOA, and 10th in passing defense EPA. A team that can stop the pass (especially when it has been largely without Pierce) is a defense that can theoretically make some noise in the playoffs (especially when paired with the 4th best passing offense by DVOA that has the 3rd highest passing EPA).
Also that's curious that the numbers that you are looking at has Cousins' 11 TO worthy plays as tied for 14th most - when I looked it up it had that as 32nd in the league, where he also was 32nd in the league for interceptable passes. Did you get that from PFF?
But yeah, to me this kind of boils down to the same idea from before the season that this team has the talent to be a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense, and by DVOA they are, and it feels like the biggest thing holding them back from getting even better is a bit more aggression (while staving off Kirk regression), combined perhaps with needing a bit more building chemistry from our OL.
An excellent analysis by a chess master mind! The last two weeks performance gives us hope, but as Viking fans we stoically await the kick in the teeth. Your headline is outstanding, Matthew! Bravo, Sir! Bravo…
I agree with the overall assessment, Matthew, but if anything you are too generous. There are times that require ingenuity, and there are times when one simply needs to stop bashing one's head against the wall and use the door everyone else is. This was the latter.
Hell, even those Broncos teams had two 100 catch receivers in 2000--when the rules were much less pass-friendly.
Good for Zimmer for finally evolving, but he didn't invent the wheel, he finally started using it after years of mindlessly riding a donkey while being repeatedly passed by trucks.
How many turnover-worthy plays did Case have in 2017? You said it on the podcast with Murphy how healthy the vikes are on offense. Like Case is 2017, is luck on Cousins side? Take advantage of it and keep pushing the ball down the field.
A+ on the headline here. Also a great piece...
A strength in Cousins game is his accuracy. Cousins should continue to take some chances because of that.
Amen. I think in LA Cousins it became clear that passes to Jefferson are completable even when a DB is stride for stride. JJ is looking back and can be first to a ball 9 feet off the ground. Cousins used to just see ‘stride for stride’ and check down. JJ is a gazelle, Cousins is accurate so this fits their personnel. I keep waiting for them to figure out back-shoulder throws.
I agree with the sentiment of this article strongly, but some of the specific numbers/assertions seem slightly off to me. I wonder if it is just you getting things from PFF, and they measure things differently?
For example, you said that the Vikings are "not capable of pressuring opposing quarterbacks," but the Vikings have the second highest hurry % in the league, and the 4th highest pressure % in the league, and those numbers as I recall have actually gone *up* since Hunter went out. Of course, we aren't getting home as often (as evidenced by the Vikings being an abysmal 28th in QB knockdown %), but that is different than getting a pressure.
Otherwise, while you are correct in that the Vikings are 24th in yards per play, 20th in defensive EPA, and 20th in % of scoring drives allowed, I wouldn't say that the defense is a bottom 10 defense as is suggested by those stats. Rather, by DVOA the defense is currently 8th. More importantly, it is 6th in passing defense DVOA, and 10th in passing defense EPA. A team that can stop the pass (especially when it has been largely without Pierce) is a defense that can theoretically make some noise in the playoffs (especially when paired with the 4th best passing offense by DVOA that has the 3rd highest passing EPA).
Also that's curious that the numbers that you are looking at has Cousins' 11 TO worthy plays as tied for 14th most - when I looked it up it had that as 32nd in the league, where he also was 32nd in the league for interceptable passes. Did you get that from PFF?
But yeah, to me this kind of boils down to the same idea from before the season that this team has the talent to be a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense, and by DVOA they are, and it feels like the biggest thing holding them back from getting even better is a bit more aggression (while staving off Kirk regression), combined perhaps with needing a bit more building chemistry from our OL.
An excellent analysis by a chess master mind! The last two weeks performance gives us hope, but as Viking fans we stoically await the kick in the teeth. Your headline is outstanding, Matthew! Bravo, Sir! Bravo…
I agree with the overall assessment, Matthew, but if anything you are too generous. There are times that require ingenuity, and there are times when one simply needs to stop bashing one's head against the wall and use the door everyone else is. This was the latter.
Hell, even those Broncos teams had two 100 catch receivers in 2000--when the rules were much less pass-friendly.
Good for Zimmer for finally evolving, but he didn't invent the wheel, he finally started using it after years of mindlessly riding a donkey while being repeatedly passed by trucks.
How many turnover-worthy plays did Case have in 2017? You said it on the podcast with Murphy how healthy the vikes are on offense. Like Case is 2017, is luck on Cousins side? Take advantage of it and keep pushing the ball down the field.