Great article. I particularly liked this blurb: "As much as we gain through statistical analysis, sometimes we lose something by feeling like we definitely know the answers." That has been my main gripe with the post PFF age that we are in - analysis of players is often times simplified down to a single metric of PFF grade, where any disagreement with any grade is sometimes dismissed as anti-intellectual or otherwise ill-informed and unworthy of consideration. PFF grades and the like are a fantastic tool to start any analysis, but IMO they should are just that: a well-informed starting point, not a conclusion. It feels overly simplistic to imagine that any single formulaic grade could categorically and infallibly account for the full and true impact of a cerebral athletic unicorn like Barr who, if coaches are to be believed, helps the team not only by what he himself does but also by taking responsibilities away from other players so that they have a simpler task on each and every single given play. How could you possibly assign a number value to that? Also, how could it not be true that taking responsibilities away from other players is valuable and makes your team more likely to succeed?
For me personally, I will always think of Barr as painfully overpaid while simultaneously being criminally underrated by many.
One of my favorite articles from y'all. A little all over the place, but super thoughtful, breaks in to some headier & more philosophical ideas. Makes a ton of sense to ask "how much certainty do analytics give us?" A heck of a lot more vs. what we had in 1995, but football is a highly complex game with lots of moving pieces and small sample sizes, so there are bound to be some gaps. Tough to tell which bits of qualitative info to use to fill those gaps - and as fans we often have some bad selection bias; we only believe in what we want to believe. I like the idea of using 2020 vs. 2021 defensive performance as a way to evaluate Barr, accepting that it's not perfect and there's a degree of certainty that's just unattainable.
Matthew--a mild quibble: those Steelers were 3-4 teams (and back when everyone played a majority of base); Kirkland played ILB, not MLB. Having two ILBs makes a difference in who and how a team can play. Otherwise, it's a fair comparison.
Barr isn't just pretty good; he's excellent. The problem is that he's excellent at a role that isn't that valuable. Generally, defences can be structured in ways that increase or decrease the value of certain positions. A zone-heavy defence doesn't need to pay for a top-of-the-market corner. OLBs in a 4-3 are unlikely to make splash plays, and should thus be valued accordingly.
Barr has done exactly what he's been asked to do. It's not his fault that he's been asked to set the table instead of cook the entree.
Great article Matthew. The sentiment that he is overpaid goes right in the face of what Zimmer believes. He certainly knows a thing or two about defense. I am glad Zimmer will either shine or go down swinging with his 2 favorite UCLA lb’s.
Great article. I particularly liked this blurb: "As much as we gain through statistical analysis, sometimes we lose something by feeling like we definitely know the answers." That has been my main gripe with the post PFF age that we are in - analysis of players is often times simplified down to a single metric of PFF grade, where any disagreement with any grade is sometimes dismissed as anti-intellectual or otherwise ill-informed and unworthy of consideration. PFF grades and the like are a fantastic tool to start any analysis, but IMO they should are just that: a well-informed starting point, not a conclusion. It feels overly simplistic to imagine that any single formulaic grade could categorically and infallibly account for the full and true impact of a cerebral athletic unicorn like Barr who, if coaches are to be believed, helps the team not only by what he himself does but also by taking responsibilities away from other players so that they have a simpler task on each and every single given play. How could you possibly assign a number value to that? Also, how could it not be true that taking responsibilities away from other players is valuable and makes your team more likely to succeed?
For me personally, I will always think of Barr as painfully overpaid while simultaneously being criminally underrated by many.
Well said and thought provoking, Sam. As already pointed out, the sterile PFF era often overlooks the proverbial "intangibles..."
One of my favorite articles from y'all. A little all over the place, but super thoughtful, breaks in to some headier & more philosophical ideas. Makes a ton of sense to ask "how much certainty do analytics give us?" A heck of a lot more vs. what we had in 1995, but football is a highly complex game with lots of moving pieces and small sample sizes, so there are bound to be some gaps. Tough to tell which bits of qualitative info to use to fill those gaps - and as fans we often have some bad selection bias; we only believe in what we want to believe. I like the idea of using 2020 vs. 2021 defensive performance as a way to evaluate Barr, accepting that it's not perfect and there's a degree of certainty that's just unattainable.
Matthew--a mild quibble: those Steelers were 3-4 teams (and back when everyone played a majority of base); Kirkland played ILB, not MLB. Having two ILBs makes a difference in who and how a team can play. Otherwise, it's a fair comparison.
Barr isn't just pretty good; he's excellent. The problem is that he's excellent at a role that isn't that valuable. Generally, defences can be structured in ways that increase or decrease the value of certain positions. A zone-heavy defence doesn't need to pay for a top-of-the-market corner. OLBs in a 4-3 are unlikely to make splash plays, and should thus be valued accordingly.
Barr has done exactly what he's been asked to do. It's not his fault that he's been asked to set the table instead of cook the entree.
Great article Matthew. The sentiment that he is overpaid goes right in the face of what Zimmer believes. He certainly knows a thing or two about defense. I am glad Zimmer will either shine or go down swinging with his 2 favorite UCLA lb’s.