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I agree with some of this a LOT, but some of this feels a bit reactionary, as if we should have been able to predict that Hunter would be out for the year, Pierce would be out for the year, Barr would be out for the year, not a single one of our corners could stay healthy, a pandemic would strip away our substantial home field advantage, etc. I agree very strongly with the Barr and Cook contracts being over-buys that were immediately identifiable as such, and I agree with the Cousins extension being immediately aggravating and that it was predictable that it could fall apart, but I don't agree with the insinuation that the Vikings are some out-of-control team like the Jets or Texans that hands out completely unworkable and clearly awful contracts to their players.
We can't call the Linval Joseph some great contract and then call the Michael Pierce contract a terrible contract. Prorated against their respective salary caps Linval actually made MORE per year than Pierce (Linval made 4.7% of the salary cap per year, while Pierce makes 4.5% of the salary cap per year). Also it is worth noting that right before the Vikings signed Linval they handed out big money to Everson in what most people said was a massive overpay. They also handed out bonkers money to Adrian Peterson during that era, and kept around veterans that were completely not worth their cap hits like Chad Greenway. They didn't change their philosophy. It has remained the same, for better or worse. When you have young players you let them play and surround them with older players that know your scheme like Terence Newman and Anthony Harris. When those players get into their 3rd and 4th years (which will happen in two years or so on this cycle) you bring in some vets where they didn't pan out. It doesn't make sense to bring in vets when your team is young that don't let your young players play.
The evaluation of this team's front office basically hinges upon whether or not you take them at their word, and whether or not you think they are able to identify sunk costs when they are confronted with them. If you believe that Rick is 100% honest now when he said that they have complete faith in Kirk, if you believed Rick and Zim back in 2018 when they said all of their glowing praise about Kirk, and if you think that this team is not capable or willing to cut bait when the time calls for it, then we need to move on from both, as they have clearly failed. However, I think that Zim and Rick lied then, and that they lied now, as that makes more sense to me. I think that in 2018 they honestly talked to themselves and talked to ownership and collectively decided and agreed that there is about a 60% chance that Kirk will be exactly who he was in Washington, which is good enough to win if the team is truly elite around him, with a 40% chance that Kirk will take a substantial step forward when moving away from a dysfunctional system, as many QBs have been (e.g., Carson Palmer, Goff, Tannehill, etc.). Frankly, I think we undersell how often zebras do in fact change their stripes, when the zebra is a QB who is moving from a dysfunctional regime to a good regime.
Beyond this, if you think that before the year Zim and Rick told ownership something along the lines of "we are absolutely going to be in the playoffs in 2020, and we have seen enough from Kirk Cousins that we know that he is the absolute best option that we can ever have to win a superbowl in the next two years," then we should be moving away from Zim and Rick. However, I don't think that they said this, and I don't think that they believe this. I think that they saw that Kirk was, in fact, the same player that he was in Washington, such that he needed elite talent around them. I think that Rick and Zim told ownership, "if we get some health and some luck then we can make the playoffs in 2020 and maybe be a hard out like in 2015, otherwise our general talent trajectory should peak in 2021-2023, and while Kirk has not been as good as we were hoping, he is still a borderline top 10 QB that we can win with, and if we do not extend him now we will have to pay 5-10MM more per year if we wait until after 2020 to extend him, given how consistent his play has been."
If Zim and Rick said the latter, which I personally think that they did, then you can argue that they deserve a chance to see if they can right this ship. And I do not agree that the Vikings can't move on from Cousins, or that they won't because doing so admits a mistake. The Vikings currently have nearly zero dead cap money for 2021, and if they cut Cousins they would have a similar amount of dead cap as what the Ravens/Steelers/Rams have had the last three years (e.g., they would have enough to still be able to field a roster, and would be below the lowered cap if they made a single move such as moving on from Reiff). Beyond this, the Vikings are actually pretty dang good at ignoring a sunk cost rather than doubling down at too high a price, whether that is moving on from Ngakoue, moving on from Linval/Rhodes/Trae, moving on from Vedvik, moving on from Teddy (which turned out to be wrong, but still they moved boldly to let their 1st round QB pick walk), or the like. Arguably the best skill of the Vikings brain trust is realizing a sunk cost and moving past.
Maybe things are different because Kirk is a QB that they gave a second contract to? That could be, and it certainly has been historically true with some teams. But, while less common, other brain trusts have boldly decided to admit they made a mistake with their QB on a big money contract when they were on a hot seat and successfully moved in a different direction, such as the Ravens with Flacco just two years ago. Back in 2017 John Harbaugh's seat was extremely hot (such that the owner was publicly discussing firing him), and if you look back at the criticisms they were remarkably similar to criticism against Zim now (boring and predictable offenses, a tendency to lose bad stinkers, an inability to turn talent into playoff victories, etc.). Despite that, the Ravens decided to go for a new QB by drafting Lamar, and deciding to rebuild on the fly by letting Flacco go (a big chunk of why they have so much dead cap right now). While I completely understand why many think that the Vikings won't move on from Kirk following the season, I don't buy the idea that moving on is impossible and/or unprecedented.
If I am the Wilfs, Spielman just signed his walking papers by trading Ngakoue. It was the right thing to do now, but it underscores just how misguided they were in thinking that 2020 had the potential to be a "Win Now" year. There was no reason to think that was a likely outcome. And had they just evaluated that decision correctly, they would have realized they should have been a pure rebuild year and acted accordingly.
No KFC extension -- make him earn it and give yourself flexibility in 2021
No signing Pierce this year -- he seems like a weight gamble to me anyway, so why overpay him for 2020? And then it backfired due to COVID...
No Cook mega-extension
Look to reduce contracts, trade or cut: Reiff, Rhodes, Rudolph, Barr, etc...
Stockpile draft picks, play young talent in 2020, and groom the team to be exciting in 2021.
Instead, due to Spielman's poor decisions, Vikings fans have seen us lose good players (Diggs) in favor or riding with KFC through 2022. That decision alone (choosing KFC over Diggs) is fireable.
But add it all up, and the ledger isn't close. Spielman needs to be fired after the season.
And we need to get rid of KFC ASAP -- trade (but who would trade for him?) or just cut him in the offseason. I know everyone thinks that is insane, but it would be worse letting him leverage the Vikings for any more years beyond this one.
I have had enough of KFC, and I blame Spielman for this predicament!
I agree with some of this a LOT, but some of this feels a bit reactionary, as if we should have been able to predict that Hunter would be out for the year, Pierce would be out for the year, Barr would be out for the year, not a single one of our corners could stay healthy, a pandemic would strip away our substantial home field advantage, etc. I agree very strongly with the Barr and Cook contracts being over-buys that were immediately identifiable as such, and I agree with the Cousins extension being immediately aggravating and that it was predictable that it could fall apart, but I don't agree with the insinuation that the Vikings are some out-of-control team like the Jets or Texans that hands out completely unworkable and clearly awful contracts to their players.
We can't call the Linval Joseph some great contract and then call the Michael Pierce contract a terrible contract. Prorated against their respective salary caps Linval actually made MORE per year than Pierce (Linval made 4.7% of the salary cap per year, while Pierce makes 4.5% of the salary cap per year). Also it is worth noting that right before the Vikings signed Linval they handed out big money to Everson in what most people said was a massive overpay. They also handed out bonkers money to Adrian Peterson during that era, and kept around veterans that were completely not worth their cap hits like Chad Greenway. They didn't change their philosophy. It has remained the same, for better or worse. When you have young players you let them play and surround them with older players that know your scheme like Terence Newman and Anthony Harris. When those players get into their 3rd and 4th years (which will happen in two years or so on this cycle) you bring in some vets where they didn't pan out. It doesn't make sense to bring in vets when your team is young that don't let your young players play.
The evaluation of this team's front office basically hinges upon whether or not you take them at their word, and whether or not you think they are able to identify sunk costs when they are confronted with them. If you believe that Rick is 100% honest now when he said that they have complete faith in Kirk, if you believed Rick and Zim back in 2018 when they said all of their glowing praise about Kirk, and if you think that this team is not capable or willing to cut bait when the time calls for it, then we need to move on from both, as they have clearly failed. However, I think that Zim and Rick lied then, and that they lied now, as that makes more sense to me. I think that in 2018 they honestly talked to themselves and talked to ownership and collectively decided and agreed that there is about a 60% chance that Kirk will be exactly who he was in Washington, which is good enough to win if the team is truly elite around him, with a 40% chance that Kirk will take a substantial step forward when moving away from a dysfunctional system, as many QBs have been (e.g., Carson Palmer, Goff, Tannehill, etc.). Frankly, I think we undersell how often zebras do in fact change their stripes, when the zebra is a QB who is moving from a dysfunctional regime to a good regime.
Beyond this, if you think that before the year Zim and Rick told ownership something along the lines of "we are absolutely going to be in the playoffs in 2020, and we have seen enough from Kirk Cousins that we know that he is the absolute best option that we can ever have to win a superbowl in the next two years," then we should be moving away from Zim and Rick. However, I don't think that they said this, and I don't think that they believe this. I think that they saw that Kirk was, in fact, the same player that he was in Washington, such that he needed elite talent around them. I think that Rick and Zim told ownership, "if we get some health and some luck then we can make the playoffs in 2020 and maybe be a hard out like in 2015, otherwise our general talent trajectory should peak in 2021-2023, and while Kirk has not been as good as we were hoping, he is still a borderline top 10 QB that we can win with, and if we do not extend him now we will have to pay 5-10MM more per year if we wait until after 2020 to extend him, given how consistent his play has been."
If Zim and Rick said the latter, which I personally think that they did, then you can argue that they deserve a chance to see if they can right this ship. And I do not agree that the Vikings can't move on from Cousins, or that they won't because doing so admits a mistake. The Vikings currently have nearly zero dead cap money for 2021, and if they cut Cousins they would have a similar amount of dead cap as what the Ravens/Steelers/Rams have had the last three years (e.g., they would have enough to still be able to field a roster, and would be below the lowered cap if they made a single move such as moving on from Reiff). Beyond this, the Vikings are actually pretty dang good at ignoring a sunk cost rather than doubling down at too high a price, whether that is moving on from Ngakoue, moving on from Linval/Rhodes/Trae, moving on from Vedvik, moving on from Teddy (which turned out to be wrong, but still they moved boldly to let their 1st round QB pick walk), or the like. Arguably the best skill of the Vikings brain trust is realizing a sunk cost and moving past.
Maybe things are different because Kirk is a QB that they gave a second contract to? That could be, and it certainly has been historically true with some teams. But, while less common, other brain trusts have boldly decided to admit they made a mistake with their QB on a big money contract when they were on a hot seat and successfully moved in a different direction, such as the Ravens with Flacco just two years ago. Back in 2017 John Harbaugh's seat was extremely hot (such that the owner was publicly discussing firing him), and if you look back at the criticisms they were remarkably similar to criticism against Zim now (boring and predictable offenses, a tendency to lose bad stinkers, an inability to turn talent into playoff victories, etc.). Despite that, the Ravens decided to go for a new QB by drafting Lamar, and deciding to rebuild on the fly by letting Flacco go (a big chunk of why they have so much dead cap right now). While I completely understand why many think that the Vikings won't move on from Kirk following the season, I don't buy the idea that moving on is impossible and/or unprecedented.
Good article and good observations.
If I am the Wilfs, Spielman just signed his walking papers by trading Ngakoue. It was the right thing to do now, but it underscores just how misguided they were in thinking that 2020 had the potential to be a "Win Now" year. There was no reason to think that was a likely outcome. And had they just evaluated that decision correctly, they would have realized they should have been a pure rebuild year and acted accordingly.
No KFC extension -- make him earn it and give yourself flexibility in 2021
No signing Pierce this year -- he seems like a weight gamble to me anyway, so why overpay him for 2020? And then it backfired due to COVID...
No Cook mega-extension
Look to reduce contracts, trade or cut: Reiff, Rhodes, Rudolph, Barr, etc...
Stockpile draft picks, play young talent in 2020, and groom the team to be exciting in 2021.
Instead, due to Spielman's poor decisions, Vikings fans have seen us lose good players (Diggs) in favor or riding with KFC through 2022. That decision alone (choosing KFC over Diggs) is fireable.
But add it all up, and the ledger isn't close. Spielman needs to be fired after the season.
And we need to get rid of KFC ASAP -- trade (but who would trade for him?) or just cut him in the offseason. I know everyone thinks that is insane, but it would be worse letting him leverage the Vikings for any more years beyond this one.
I have had enough of KFC, and I blame Spielman for this predicament!
Heard, Harry quit following Vikes online, that could mean something interesting is coming. Or just a computer glitch.